Are you one of the millions of American men who bet on football each weekend? Do you think you're so good at football betting that you consider it a legitimate secondary (or even primary) source of income? If that's the case, be proud. Don't be ashamed of it. Cause as the approximately 85.5% of people who bet on football every fall and lose regularly will tell you, it ain't easy. Well as veteran bettors of over 5 years, maybe we can help you out. Check our picks on Twitter if you want to doubt our expertise. Here's some tips:1. Fantasy football is more or less a waste of time.
Since the NFL's current wave of popularity began in 2007 and seems to crest higher every year, more and more guys sign up for fantasy football and consider it a meaningful way to spend their time. Wrong. Out of all gambling activities, fantasy football has the lowest ROI %. It's basically every guy in the league putting their money on a 15/1 horse. (or 20/1, or however many guys in your league). I understand the need in American workforce to smack talk and have friendly competitions at fantasy football. But unless you're in a rare scenario (as presented on FX's brilliant "The League"), in which you winning at fantasy can have implications on your professional or personal success, I would consider it a waste of time and effort to be constantly checking/updating your team.
Even if you "pound" your opponent one week, and get to talk all the smack you want to them, there's still only a small chance you'll win your league or even get your money back. Don't worry about it. Sundays are supposed to be about letting loose, cheering on your team and having some fun to escape your workaday existence. Life is too short, and football season is too short, to be worried about your team. The smartest fantasy players are commissioners who take a cut of entry fees from all league members.
2. Don't bet drunk.
Beer and football. Match made in heaven. Every American man who works hard all week deserves to kick back, have a beer and watch some football once every week, most likely on a lazy Sunday when all the games are on. Anyone who takes their computer/phone to a bar and makes bets while drunk based on the advice of other drunk people is destined to lose. Same principle as getting drunk at a race track and making uninformed bets on every race, through an alcohol haze. I've seen both.
Why do you think the NFL changed its Sunday afternoon slate of games from 4:15 to 4:25PM start times? It's because even the league brass realizes that every gambler wants to hedge their 1PM losses with an afternoon bet, and we now have 10 extra minutes to do it. If you really want to make money on football you can't trust the "advice" of anyone but your own gut instinct and the previous results to back it. Don't let your friends (especially sheepish or drunk ones), sucker you into bets.
3. Choose one game and stick with it.
With so many games to choose from on Sundays (and Saturdays for college junkies), it's so easy to just go in on every game during the day and hope you're right more often than not. WRONG. Never a successful longterm strategy to think you know EVERY game. Its a rookie mistake. We tend to find that the night games or MNF contests sometimes have the more obvious opportunities than day lines when there's 8 or more games going on at once.
As anyone who loves football will tell you, part of the fun is the unpredictability aspect. Anything can happen to any team, any given Sunday as the expression goes. We strongly recommend you study the lines, find one where you think the books got it wrong, and stick with that. Go balls-out with the bet. Even if you got it wrong, you have a much better chance, trust us, than putting a grand on your favorite team to win EVERY week "cause they're the fuckin' Kings", or whatever your reasoning is.
4. If you win one, stay put!
If you only take one game on a football Saturday or Sunday and you happen to win, don't put all the money you just won on another result. Especially if you do not know the team or didn't research it. Any payout you get from the sportsbooks is a gift, and shouldn't be taken for granted. I know it's human instinct that if something works you lean into it, but it's the sportsbooks' instinct that if you got em one time, they'll get you back when you come in for the next game.
5. Don't put personal emotion into it.
Just because you're originally from Pittsburgh or your mom once lived in Ohio or your girlfriend's a Michigan alum doesn't make it any more likely that the Steelers or Browns or Lions will win or cover any spread for you. If the Lions are clearly overmatched on the road against a superior team, don't put a month's rent on them covering in honor of your girlfriend or your alma mater or any personal/professional association. That's likely to backfire.
6. If the gambling thing doesn't work out, DON'T wire more in.
This isn't for everyone. If gambling on football doesn't work out Week 3, it's not gonna work out week 14 or week 11 or any round of the playoffs. The games have a predetermined flow, and many people can't put their finger on it. Crazy stuff happens during the day games, sometimes crazy bounces happen at night too. Especially with these replacement officials, you NEVER know when a key call will swing the game against you.
Some bettors don't learn from their mistakes, and that's a sign of trouble in adult life. Have a budget in mind at the start of the season, which won't be a financial strain if it's lost. Don't go all in on a single game, and find at least one game a week to sit back and enjoy the sport for what it is. If you lose, you lose. Find ways to tune out the talking heads, your friends or other guys in your office when they say they like someone. Just find ways not to do it.
7. Never underestimate the power of a home crowd.
Often times when a team is given a Sunday/Monday/Thursday night game, or a college team gets a game on ESPN, it's a big deal for the team and they're going to bring their best. The crowd will get the call and the big play they want more often than not. Sometimes you gotta look at how big a deal it is for the school or the organization regardless of recent results. Only for minor college teams (non AP top 25) and clearly overmatched NFL teams playing day games does the crowd have less of an impact. When in doubt, take the crowd.
8. NEVER bet against a champion
The first thing you should look at when evaluating your team's chances of winning or covering a spread is study their postseason history. Have they won the big one? Have they won any kind of title? If the team has won a title in the last few years you can't bet against them, at home, on the road, under any circumstances. If the team has won with any semblance of its current players, that means it knows big-game pressure, it knows how to perform on the road (all football championships are won on a neutral field), and in nighttime showcase games. If you don't like how the matchup is stacked up, stay away from the game, or if they're the underdog place a small amount on them winning. Worked this week. A champion football team is likely come out of nowhere and surprise you, like the Giants did this year.
8. Don't buy into the hype.
When there's a large amount of media or talking-head attention going towards one particular player or team it's often a setup for a major letdown the next week (examples: RG3 and Peyton Manning's week 2 losses, with both the Redskins and Broncos being huge public money favorites). Perhaps the biggest recent "crap the bed" gambling moment was the Tim Tebow-led Broncos getting blown out by the Pats in last year's playoffs, with Tebow and his team dominating headlines all week. Do NOT bet based on what you hear in the media, on the chat boxes on espn.com, or in any kind of "epic" video compilation. The sports books make a large amount of their money because of public action based on a meme or media fascination.
9. Be wary of line mistakes.
When you watch as much football as we do, you'll notice things in the lines that make you perk up. A heavy favorite getting a spread of -2.5 (or pick-em) when we can easily see them destroying their opponent at home. A home dog of +10 who has one of the craziest crowds in the nation. A college team laying -10 points with a freshman QB.
10. Be careful of big spreads.
It's a rookie mistake to pile on money for a spread of -10, -20, -whatever, just because you think a team is ranked in the top 25. The spreads are iffy and designed for rookie bettors. Besides, it's the same principle as fantasy sports; you don't want to be the only guy at the bar not celebrating when your team wins, just because they didn't cover some stupid spread. Spreads are for suckers, finding money line values is where the best chances are. Only spreads that provide value are home 'dogs. You never feel good when you laid -28 on Arkansas and UL-Monroe goes ahead 7-0 early. People lost a fortune on that game, and even more on the Patriots last weekend when they lost to Arizona as 2-TD favorites. Our friend, a pro gambler, doesn't wanna bring it up. At the end of the day it's just one game in a long season, and as any guy at the bar can tell you, shit can happen. It does. That's why they're there. They want upsets. You don't wanna have an entire bar full of happy people celebrating your loss of a paycheck.
11. No one's gonna care if you won or lost.
Warning. Gambling on football is not a social activity. It's every man for himself, and if you bring it up socially it won't fly very well. Trust us. Especially for the ladies. Girls don't bet and often look down on guys who do. You can make fun of them all they want for not knowing the rules and screaming uncontrollably during game watches. But of all the ridiculous things you hear girls talking about, who they just won/lost money on isn't one of them. Unless there's a reality show or awards show dress betting circuit which we don't know about (My money's on NO).
During the Super Bowl sure everyone takes ridiculous prop bets. They'll even put a small bet on the game (1-200 dollars max). But they know they're probably gonna lose. Even at the racetracks, losing on horses is part of the fun. Don't be "that guy" at the bar. If you tried and failed at betting, don't bring it up, and drink down your loss like a man. Trust us, enjoy football when it's here.
